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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Duluth mn to port wing wi...
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time...mot...loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KMPX 302340 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 540 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Mild weather for the foreseeable future.

- Slight chances for some light precipitation early next week.
Most locations will remain dry, but some nuisance snow accumulation is possible.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... A pleasant late Fall day with temperatures overachieving once again. Highs soared into the low to mid 40s by early afternoon despite the cool NW winds. As temperatures warmed through the morning, we opted to load in the 95th percentile NBM, which is still too cool in some areas.
Satellite observations reveal an area of scattered clouds that developed over portions of central Minnesota, but most of the area should remain scatter to mostly clear for the remainder of today. We'll keep our eyes to the sky tonight as a CME is forecast to impact the Earth and trigger the Aurora. If you're heading out to hunt the Northern Lights, skies should remain mostly clear, but a layer of mid to high level clouds begins to build in towards sunrise Friday morning. If you're curious about space weather or the aurora I encourage you to check out the SWPC (space weather prediction center) website.

Looking ahead at the remainder of the forecast and not much has changed since the previous update. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above average with mostly dry weather over the next 7 days.
Cloud cover will continue to increase on Friday as a storm system takes shape off to our south and east over the Great Lakes region.
We've opted to nudge highs toward the 75th NBM despite the increase in cloud cover to match the recent trend of over achieving temperatures. Saturday and Sunday will be similar, with highs in mid to upper 30s. Saturday night into Sunday, a broad trough will approach from the west, but remains fairly unorganized as it moves through the Upper Midwest, before it organizes over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Guidance has continued to trend drier on Sunday and our PoPs have followed suit. There are still slight chance PoPs from the NBM yet I expect those to trend lower with the next forecast update tonight. The best signal for any light precipitation over S and E WI.

As this system moves east, a brief window of northwest flow will develop on the back side, and this should bring us the next weak clipper system Monday night into Tuesday morning. This clipper has better support across guidance as the shortwave drops south out of Canada into the Dakotas and Minnesota Monday afternoon. This system should bring an area of light precipitation across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. This will be a compact, quick moving system our chances for precipitation are on the lower end (10 to 30%) over a broad area, but these will likely increase as timing and location become more certain. Current guidance brings a broad area of light QPF to the previously mentioned areas. Any nuisance snow accumulations will be light, generally less than a half an inch.

Behind our clipper, we'll see the return of dry and mild weather. A ridge begins to build into the central CONUS divert any systems to the north of the region. I expect temperatures will be the main story for the first week of December. Our current highs next Wednesday through Friday are likely too cold as forecast 925mb temperatures will run warmer than they have this week. We may h ave a chance at another 50 degree high before cooler air returns next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Outside of a low VFR cloud deck in central Minnesota this evening high to clear sky VFR through the period. Winds fall to light and variable tonight and pick up very little during the day tomorrow. About as unimpactful aviation weather as you will see in December for the Upper Midwest.

KMSP... No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind E 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR/MVFR, chc -SN. Wind S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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