Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 1:39 PM   Moonset 3:31 AM

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LSZ121 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time - .mot - .loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 190005 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 705 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain/snow showers today over northern Minnesota.
Stronger snow showers possible Friday with colder air.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the weekend with low humidity and gusty winds. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed.

- An area of low pressure will impact the Northland next Monday/Tuesday with a wintry mix.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Mixed rain and snow showers will be possible starting this afternoon around 4 or 5 PM (40% chance). There may be some brief bursts of heavy snow/sleet at times this evening that could locally drop visibility to half a mile. Accumulations of a light dusting at the most as temperatures will be above freezing. Scattered snow showers persist tonight into Friday morning (40% chance) with accumulations up to 0.5" possible (mainly on grassy surfaces, but couldn't rule out a bit of roadway accumulation). This should all melt Friday morning as temperatures warm up. Friday afternoon, more snow showers or mixed rain/sleet/snow showers are expected. Little to no accumulations with temperatures rising above freezing, but visibilities could briefly drop to 1/2 to 1/4 mile during the heaviest snow showers. Breezy WNW winds gusting to 20-30 mph.
Steep low-level lapse rates and strong winds will contribute to the gustiness of the showers.

Dry air will sag down from the north on Saturday and especially on Sunday dropping RH's values into the 20s and possibly teens while also increasing winds will cause a fair amount of concern for fire weather this weekend. Thinking Fire Weather Watches will be in the cards.

There still looks to be a strong signal for a low pressure to move through Monday night into Tuesday afternoon bringing the potential for up to a half an inch of QPF. Ptypes may be in play as the Northland will straddle the line between cold air to the north and warm air to the south. Overall, model agreement is fairly good and has really come together in the last couple of runs. While the ptypes may be an issue, the April warmth should inhibit much of an impact. Even the NBM 95th pctnl gives at max 3" of snow to Two Harbors where the dynamics and lake effect max out (again, a low probability occurrence). Generally speaking it should be a good system to keep us wet as we head through green up avoiding fire weather.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place early this evening. A trough will move into the region tonight and bring light snow showers to areas along and north of the Iron Range, with INL seeing the best chances. Ceilings at INL are expected to lower to MVFR and remain there for much of the period. VSBYs may quickly drop to IFR for brief periods in the snow showers. Light snow showers or a rain/snow may will be possible across the entire area for Friday with the highest confidence at HIB and INL. Brief VSBY reductions will be possible in these showers.
West winds will continue to be breezy through the period with gusts to 20 to 30 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon. The winds and waves will diminish for a time late this afternoon into tonight but ramp up again Friday from the west. The strongest wind will occur Friday with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. There is a 20 percent chance for some gale force gusts around 35 knots.

West or northwest winds will occur Saturday with gusts again around 25 knots but then subside a bit into Sunday before increasing again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>148-150.

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