Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Massena, NY

KEY MESSAGES
As of 242 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Rounds of showers expected today after fog and low clouds lift this morning, with heightened thunderstorm chances across southern Vermont this afternoon and evening. Please stay weather- aware and have a method of receiving Watches and Warnings.

2. Additional showers, mist, drizzle, and fog may make for hazardous travel again tonight, then the boundary finally clears out of our area Friday. Please use caution when driving in low visibilities.

3. Rainy and windy weather is expected for the latter half of the weekend as another frontal system impacts the region.
Brief mountain snow is possible late Sunday into Sunday night with a cold frontal passage.

4. Much colder but dry to start next week, though trending warmer with chances of rain by mid next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 242 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A stalled frontal boundary located across the southern portion of our forecast area this morning is bringing light showers, mist, drizzle, low clouds, and patchy dense fog this morning in light winds and abundant moisture. Visibilities are poorest (1/4 to 2 miles) across the northern tier of our forecast area, north of the boundary. Later this morning, after showers move out of the region and fog gradually mixes out, we anticipate a dry period ahead of our next low pressure system, and the stationary boundary is expected to shift northward, drawing warmer air into the northern New York and Vermont. in southern and central Vermont, as well as portions of the Adirondacks and southern Champlain Valley, there should be some areas of clearing, allowing temperatures to rise into the 70s (well above seasonal averages), with highs in the 60s remaining closer to the international border and on mountains. An area of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary this afternoon and evening, bringing multiple rounds of showers. The HRRR continues to be aggressive with instability in the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont with about 65-85% chance of 500+ J/kg CAPE and 45- 65% chance of 1000+ J/kg CAPE as dew points are expected to rise to around 60 F. NAM3K also shows most unstable CAPE/MUCAPE at around 1600-1800 J/kg, which could assist in the production of hail. One fly in the ointment for severe development is that the stationary boundary may not make it very far north in time for the main forcing to come through this afternoon, which could have us underperform in warmth and instability. However, HRRR mean 0-6 KM shear continues to look dynamic with 45-60 knots, and 0-1 KM SRH between 70-220 m2/s2 and 0-3 KM SRH between 180-310 m2/s2 also support this. NAM3K suggests Effective Bulk Wind Difference around 55-60 knots. Due to the favorable ingredients, isolated to scattered severe storms are possible across southern Vermont. The main threat would be damaging winds, though large hail is possible as well. Due to the relatively fast motion of the storms, flash flooding is not expected despite modest projected precipitable water values around 1.20-1.40".

KEY MESSAGE 2: Another night of showers, mist, drizzle, and fog is likely tonight as the front sinks back southward across the forecast area. One thing we're not seeing as much of tonight is a strong atmospheric inversion trapping moisture that was present this morning. However, the moisture (precipitable water values 1.00- 1.50") looks to linger, and models continue to suggest at least a minor inversion setting up for a portion of tonight. Temperatures tonight will also be largely similar to last night, with lows in the upper 40s and 50s, fairly mild for this time of year. On Friday, the frontal boundary haunting the region with moisture looks to finally shift southwards and into the Atlantic Ocean by the end of the day.
This means dramatically decreasing chances of showers and temperatures remaining above normal with highs in the 60s and lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Low pressure will slide by well to our north Saturday and Saturday night, dragging a cold front along in its wake.
Temperatures will warm on a 50-55 knot southerly 850 mb jet ahead of the front, allowing highs to rise into the 60s and lower 70s.
Efficient mixing will bring windy conditions Saturday afternoon into the overnight as the core of the jet moves overhead. Southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely Saturday and Saturday night, with locally higher gusts possible in the Champlain Valley due to channeling and along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping. The cold front is expected to move through late Saturday night into early Sunday, resulting in temperatures at their warmest Saturday evening, then falling slowly throughout the day Sunday in brisk westerly winds after the frontal passage. Rain showers are most likely Saturday evening through Sunday morning, coming to an end from west to east Sunday evening and night as drier air flows in following the frontal passage. As the showers end, they may change over briefly to snow showers as temperatures fall into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night. Little to no snow accumulation is expected, particularly below summit levels, as the atmosphere should dry out quickly before temperatures fall too low.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Following a cold front on Sunday, a cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region for the start of next week with perhaps some snow shower chances on Monday. Brisk northwest flow will draw cooler and drier Canadian air as high pressure begins to shift east out of the Great Lakes. A trailing shortwave on the backside of a departing trough will shift south on the leading edge of the high with a few chances for snow showers in the higher terrain. With 925mb temperatures Monday to -5C to -9C, sfc highs will struggle to reach 40 areawide, with the higher terrain hugging the freezing mark. The GFS model progs the 520dam line to sag south into the Mohawk Valley of New York and southern Vermont further supporting cold surface temperatures and cool enough mid level atmospheric profiles to support a saturated thin DGZ. Snow growth will be limited, however, due to a low equilibrium level to 700mb and a significantly dry low level. Any snow showers that do form will likely fall as virga for most of the region, outside of the higher summits.

Towards mid week, model agreement decreases rapidly with the placement of several troughs associated with an upper low. Though, do anticipate some increasing precipitation chances as moisture returns to the area with temperatures on the cool side.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12Z Friday...Low clouds across the region will slowly improve this morning back to MVFR and eventually VFR for most terminals by midday. Low clouds will remain until 14-16Z based on satellite and model soundings, as well as persistence from yesterday. Beyond the morning low clouds, a weak surface low will bring additional chances for rain and rumbles of thunder into this afternoon/evening with winds becoming south/southwest.
A broken line of showers appears likely between 18-23Z across much of northern New York, and between 22-02Z for the Champlain Valley and much of Vermont. Within this line, a couple scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly impacting RUT/MPV with lower confidence at BTV/PBG/SLK. The main threats will be strong gusts and some isolated large hail. Winds outside of any thunderstorms should remain light (< 10 knots) today, with a few breezes (10-15 knots) within the line of showers. Showers will taper off beyond 02-03Z tonight with a return of fog and mist as the stationary boundary lingers over the region. A return to MVFR/IFR conditions areawide, with better confidence in terminals receiving heavy rain, is expected.

Outlook...

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.