Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Massena, NY
 | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM Moonset 3:38 PM |
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Massena, NY
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FXUS61 KBTV 141439 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1039 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...
Updated to adjust pops/temps and severe wording based on latest surface trends/radar imagery and 12z guidance. This include mentioning small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall along and south of a SLK to BTV to MPV line between 17z and 23z today. SPC has expanded the slight risk northward toward the International Border with 1230 UTC update.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential has expanded slightly northward, but greatest probability is Essex County NY into Addison/Orange Counties and south. Primary threat is gusty winds, but small hail and brief tornado is possible.
2. Additional precipitation chances and warm temperatures will continue through the end of the work week with some embedded thunderstorm chances in the afternoons.
3. A more amplified weather pattern and shortwave will lead to unseasonably warm conditions and scattered rain showers at the end of the week.
4. A round of widespread showers Saturday night and Sunday will usher in a sharply cooler period early next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface analysis shows low pres north of Lake Erie with greatest 3hr pres falls toward the Ottawa Valley, while a shallow terrain driven boundary remains draped acrs our cwa this morning. As low pres tracks to our north, this boundary should lift northward and temps will quickly warm, especially south of a SLK to Middlebury to LEB line this aftn. This warming bl wl result in sfc based CAPE values climbing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, which combined with favorable deep layer shear of 40 to 50 knots, wl result in strong to locally severe thunderstorms possibilities as s/w energy arrives this aftn.
Given the boundary and low level turning of wind fields, a small/weak tornado is possible, this is supported by 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2 and 0-3km values >300. Greatest threat based on analysis would be central Addison County btwn 18z-21z this aftn. Otherwise, still some uncertainty on amount of clearing/instability that can develop, especially further north from a BTV to 1V4 line. We did place small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall into the fcst to cover strong thunderstorm potential for our central/southern cwa this aftn. Also, made some minor tweaks to pops and temps as warming has been delayed due to clouds this morning.
Previous Discussion below:
An area of enhanced convection associated with an MCS is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area. This area of energy is riding along a nearly stationary boundary that is draped across our region with a weak surface low centered over Lake Michigan. This sfc low will track near the International Border by this afternoon bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. The latest SPC day1 outlook shows a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) south of a line from Saranac Lake, NY to Lebanon, NH, with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for the rest of the region. The main threat with any thunderstorms today will be potentially damaging gusty winds.
A cold front associated with the sfc low will begin to organize itself into a broken line of showers as early as noon today across the St. Lawrence Valley. Instability ahead of the line remains somewhat uncertain for most of the region with high clouds and a lack of diurnal heating time as the boundary slides east. HRRR and RRFS models denote an earlier boundary progression between 3 and 5 PM in the CPV, whereas the NAM3k continues to favor a later arrival to the CPV between 6 PM and 8 PM, which the latter would be favorable for stronger storms. Any instability in the warm sector will be maximized in the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont where some clearing and higher temperatures into the 70s will allow Sfc CAPE to rise to 400-600J/kg progged in the HRRR, supported by HRRR probability maximums of 40-60% across southern Vermont. Furthermore, these warming temperatures will allow lapse rates to rise to 7-8C/km supporting areas of thunderstorms development. A low level jet across the International Border will help support 0 to 6 km shear to 40 to 50 knots mainly north of US 4, but with pockets of embedded 40-50 knots of shear in southern Vermont. This highlights the strongest winds are north and the highest instability is south.
These pockets of embedded higher shear will be colocated with curving hodographs and around 200 m2/s2 0 to 3 km SRH which would support some isolated areas of rotation. However, failure modes do exist, with convective blowoff limiting instability potential, LCLs to above 1000 m, and the innate climatology of rotation for our region that would not favor any supercells this time of year. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out with Pwats around 1 to 1.25 inches, but progressive storm motion, and lack of training storm signals keeps this threat level low.
This will be a nowcasting type of day as we watch how the environment evolves throughout the day to see how robust convection will be. For now the greatest action will likely be across Rutland/Windsor Counties with the potential for damaging wind gusts above 60 MPH, with most of the overall action south of our CWA
KEY MESSAGE 2: An active weather pattern is expected through mid week into late week as a nearly stationary boundary becomes draped across the region north of a ridge over the Southeast. Multiple shortwaves will ride along this ridge under westerly flow producing additional chances for precipitation through the late week. The stationary boundary will likely fluctuate from day to day depending on both mesoscale features like residual convective prior day activity and synoptic flow. These changes will have significant impacts on temperatures and daytime instability for both Wednesday and Thursday. Latest trends indicate the Wednesday system arriving during the late morning into early afternoon with embedded thunderstorms possible. Given the timing thunderstorm chances will be limited, but the best chances will be across central and southern Vermont. This setup will be similar to todays thunderstorm potential, but the boundary may setup a bit south of todays, which would limit the available instability. HRRR/NAM3 profiles show weaker lapse rates with a low LCL and potential strong inversion above 500 ft. There will be little change in the overall airmass with temperatures still rising into the upper 60s to low 70s in southern Vermont and in the upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. Thursday will will almost be a carbon copy of Wednesday, and as usual, instability will be the driving factor for any thunderstorm potential. Trends for Thursday have been towards some morning convection which will limit the afternoon instability and thunderstorm threat, but with these setups, boundary motion is hard to nail down, and where and if these thunderstorms develop is still uncertain. Regardless, most of the area can expected rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms and warm temperatures through the late week.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A quick-hitting shortwave will bring some rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms, mainly in southern Vermont, on Friday as guidance indicates 925mb temperatures could reach 13-17 C Friday afternoon. Due to this and decreasing clouds, forecast surface temps are as high as the 60s and lower 70s, with non-zero instability values projected. Probability of measurable precipitation runs about 30-60% Friday afternoon, likely realized as spotty showers everywhere and a few rumbles of thunder in central/southern Vermont. Lows Friday night should remain mild in the 40s and lower 50s, with only a brief period of high pressure between systems late Friday night and Saturday morning. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening as a larger frontal system approaches. Despite increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to again rise above seasonable normals Saturday, reaching into the 60s in strong southerly flow and modest warm air advection.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A large frontal system, centered over Ontario and the Hudson Bay Saturday night, will drag a cold frontal boundary through the forecast area into Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and lower 50s will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night, and highs Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s become upper 30s to mid 40s Monday as cooler air spills into the region on northwesterly flow behind a secondary cold front. Probabilities of measurable precipitation in six hours are about 50-65% by Sunday afternoon, though probabilities of rainfall 0.50" within 24 hours during this period is around 10-30%. Thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon in northern New York when warmth lingers, but the timing of instability, warmth, and forcing do not align favorably for widespread t-storms in this system as the best forcing occurs at night. Sunday night and Monday, as temperatures fall, there is the potential for some snow showers, mainly at higher elevations, before the arrival of drier air behind a secondary front tapers off precip.
High pressure keeps weather quieter and cool toward the middle of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...Low clouds and fog will disperse and lift this morning. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely today, with a couple stronger storms possible. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms. An area of enhanced convection is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area from the west. Question remains on how much clouds clear up throughout the day today. Most likely seeing cigs lift to widespread VFR levels until showers and thunderstorms come through this afternoon and evening, lowering cigs back to MVFR and potentially IFR. Vis will also be limited in showers and t-storms, though confidence is lower on the exact timing of t-storms and their lowered visibilities. Wind gusts out of the southwest 15-25 knots for most sites are likely with the passage of the showers and t-storms in the afternoon. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft agl increase along the showers/storms, around 16Z-20Z Tuesday onwards. After the showers/storms pass through each site, ceilings are expected to lower to widespread IFR by around 00Z Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
CLIMATE
As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday...
Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record).
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 14: KBTV: 54/2023 KPBG: 51/1964 KSLK: 47/1964
EQUIPMENT
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1039 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...
Updated to adjust pops/temps and severe wording based on latest surface trends/radar imagery and 12z guidance. This include mentioning small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall along and south of a SLK to BTV to MPV line between 17z and 23z today. SPC has expanded the slight risk northward toward the International Border with 1230 UTC update.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential has expanded slightly northward, but greatest probability is Essex County NY into Addison/Orange Counties and south. Primary threat is gusty winds, but small hail and brief tornado is possible.
2. Additional precipitation chances and warm temperatures will continue through the end of the work week with some embedded thunderstorm chances in the afternoons.
3. A more amplified weather pattern and shortwave will lead to unseasonably warm conditions and scattered rain showers at the end of the week.
4. A round of widespread showers Saturday night and Sunday will usher in a sharply cooler period early next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface analysis shows low pres north of Lake Erie with greatest 3hr pres falls toward the Ottawa Valley, while a shallow terrain driven boundary remains draped acrs our cwa this morning. As low pres tracks to our north, this boundary should lift northward and temps will quickly warm, especially south of a SLK to Middlebury to LEB line this aftn. This warming bl wl result in sfc based CAPE values climbing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, which combined with favorable deep layer shear of 40 to 50 knots, wl result in strong to locally severe thunderstorms possibilities as s/w energy arrives this aftn.
Given the boundary and low level turning of wind fields, a small/weak tornado is possible, this is supported by 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2 and 0-3km values >300. Greatest threat based on analysis would be central Addison County btwn 18z-21z this aftn. Otherwise, still some uncertainty on amount of clearing/instability that can develop, especially further north from a BTV to 1V4 line. We did place small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall into the fcst to cover strong thunderstorm potential for our central/southern cwa this aftn. Also, made some minor tweaks to pops and temps as warming has been delayed due to clouds this morning.
Previous Discussion below:
An area of enhanced convection associated with an MCS is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area. This area of energy is riding along a nearly stationary boundary that is draped across our region with a weak surface low centered over Lake Michigan. This sfc low will track near the International Border by this afternoon bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. The latest SPC day1 outlook shows a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) south of a line from Saranac Lake, NY to Lebanon, NH, with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for the rest of the region. The main threat with any thunderstorms today will be potentially damaging gusty winds.
A cold front associated with the sfc low will begin to organize itself into a broken line of showers as early as noon today across the St. Lawrence Valley. Instability ahead of the line remains somewhat uncertain for most of the region with high clouds and a lack of diurnal heating time as the boundary slides east. HRRR and RRFS models denote an earlier boundary progression between 3 and 5 PM in the CPV, whereas the NAM3k continues to favor a later arrival to the CPV between 6 PM and 8 PM, which the latter would be favorable for stronger storms. Any instability in the warm sector will be maximized in the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont where some clearing and higher temperatures into the 70s will allow Sfc CAPE to rise to 400-600J/kg progged in the HRRR, supported by HRRR probability maximums of 40-60% across southern Vermont. Furthermore, these warming temperatures will allow lapse rates to rise to 7-8C/km supporting areas of thunderstorms development. A low level jet across the International Border will help support 0 to 6 km shear to 40 to 50 knots mainly north of US 4, but with pockets of embedded 40-50 knots of shear in southern Vermont. This highlights the strongest winds are north and the highest instability is south.
These pockets of embedded higher shear will be colocated with curving hodographs and around 200 m2/s2 0 to 3 km SRH which would support some isolated areas of rotation. However, failure modes do exist, with convective blowoff limiting instability potential, LCLs to above 1000 m, and the innate climatology of rotation for our region that would not favor any supercells this time of year. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out with Pwats around 1 to 1.25 inches, but progressive storm motion, and lack of training storm signals keeps this threat level low.
This will be a nowcasting type of day as we watch how the environment evolves throughout the day to see how robust convection will be. For now the greatest action will likely be across Rutland/Windsor Counties with the potential for damaging wind gusts above 60 MPH, with most of the overall action south of our CWA
KEY MESSAGE 2: An active weather pattern is expected through mid week into late week as a nearly stationary boundary becomes draped across the region north of a ridge over the Southeast. Multiple shortwaves will ride along this ridge under westerly flow producing additional chances for precipitation through the late week. The stationary boundary will likely fluctuate from day to day depending on both mesoscale features like residual convective prior day activity and synoptic flow. These changes will have significant impacts on temperatures and daytime instability for both Wednesday and Thursday. Latest trends indicate the Wednesday system arriving during the late morning into early afternoon with embedded thunderstorms possible. Given the timing thunderstorm chances will be limited, but the best chances will be across central and southern Vermont. This setup will be similar to todays thunderstorm potential, but the boundary may setup a bit south of todays, which would limit the available instability. HRRR/NAM3 profiles show weaker lapse rates with a low LCL and potential strong inversion above 500 ft. There will be little change in the overall airmass with temperatures still rising into the upper 60s to low 70s in southern Vermont and in the upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. Thursday will will almost be a carbon copy of Wednesday, and as usual, instability will be the driving factor for any thunderstorm potential. Trends for Thursday have been towards some morning convection which will limit the afternoon instability and thunderstorm threat, but with these setups, boundary motion is hard to nail down, and where and if these thunderstorms develop is still uncertain. Regardless, most of the area can expected rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms and warm temperatures through the late week.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A quick-hitting shortwave will bring some rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms, mainly in southern Vermont, on Friday as guidance indicates 925mb temperatures could reach 13-17 C Friday afternoon. Due to this and decreasing clouds, forecast surface temps are as high as the 60s and lower 70s, with non-zero instability values projected. Probability of measurable precipitation runs about 30-60% Friday afternoon, likely realized as spotty showers everywhere and a few rumbles of thunder in central/southern Vermont. Lows Friday night should remain mild in the 40s and lower 50s, with only a brief period of high pressure between systems late Friday night and Saturday morning. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening as a larger frontal system approaches. Despite increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to again rise above seasonable normals Saturday, reaching into the 60s in strong southerly flow and modest warm air advection.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A large frontal system, centered over Ontario and the Hudson Bay Saturday night, will drag a cold frontal boundary through the forecast area into Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and lower 50s will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night, and highs Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s become upper 30s to mid 40s Monday as cooler air spills into the region on northwesterly flow behind a secondary cold front. Probabilities of measurable precipitation in six hours are about 50-65% by Sunday afternoon, though probabilities of rainfall 0.50" within 24 hours during this period is around 10-30%. Thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon in northern New York when warmth lingers, but the timing of instability, warmth, and forcing do not align favorably for widespread t-storms in this system as the best forcing occurs at night. Sunday night and Monday, as temperatures fall, there is the potential for some snow showers, mainly at higher elevations, before the arrival of drier air behind a secondary front tapers off precip.
High pressure keeps weather quieter and cool toward the middle of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...Low clouds and fog will disperse and lift this morning. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely today, with a couple stronger storms possible. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms. An area of enhanced convection is currently tracking across the Great Lakes this morning with widespread lightning as it approaches our area from the west. Question remains on how much clouds clear up throughout the day today. Most likely seeing cigs lift to widespread VFR levels until showers and thunderstorms come through this afternoon and evening, lowering cigs back to MVFR and potentially IFR. Vis will also be limited in showers and t-storms, though confidence is lower on the exact timing of t-storms and their lowered visibilities. Wind gusts out of the southwest 15-25 knots for most sites are likely with the passage of the showers and t-storms in the afternoon. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000 ft agl increase along the showers/storms, around 16Z-20Z Tuesday onwards. After the showers/storms pass through each site, ceilings are expected to lower to widespread IFR by around 00Z Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
CLIMATE
As of 344 AM EDT Tuesday...
Incoming warmer air is presently forecast to approach daily record values. The most likely dates for near or broken records will be today with mild overnight air leading to high minimum temperatures. Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record).
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 14: KBTV: 54/2023 KPBG: 51/1964 KSLK: 47/1964
EQUIPMENT
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSS
Wind History Graph: MSS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of north east
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