Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, ND

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Synopsis

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a surface low centered roughly over Williston down through Fort Berthold Reservation.
This is connected to a thermal ridge bringing temperatures in the 40s and 50s to western North Dakota with strong winds already developing in eastern Montana behind the surface trough.
Strong warm air advection snow is ongoing this afternoon and moving eastward towards our area. Strong instability is contributing to moderate to heavy snowfall rates across the northern tier of North Dakota and is expected to continue eastward. Through the remainder of the afternoon, heavy snow is still expected with a swath of 2-8 inches of snow likely along and north of US Highway 2.

As the surface low approaches, winds aloft increase dramatically. VWP observations indicates roughly 80-90 knots of wind across eastern Montana which should translate eastward through the afternoon. While the maximum of the jet should pass to our south based on current observations, winds will increase on the backside of this low pressure system, bringing high winds and blizzard conditions to the region. Winds greatly improve after 7 AM tomorrow, with only lingering patchy blowing snow in the mid to late morning hours expected. Accumulating snow should exit the entire region by early tomorrow afternoon at the latest for our eastern zones, bringing limited impacts Friday.

The next chance for impactful weather will come late this weekend as another strong system develops, but the center of which passes to our south. Accumulating snow is possible in our southern tier of zones and with the expectation for additional stronger northerly winds, blowing snow is possible depending on the state of the snowpack by then. There is a strong signal for warming by late next week as large scale ridging takes hold over the northwest. Until then, we remain susceptible to shortwaves within the flow which carry a low predictability.

WINTER STORM AND HIGH WINDS

The surface low over western North Dakota will continue to propagate east-southeastward through the afternoon based on QG forcing trends aloft. As this occurs, isentropic ascent contributing to ongoing snowfall will push more into our area.
The strong nature of the synoptic forcing, coupled with strong frontogenesis, will allow for organized banding bringing moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.50-1+ inch per hour to areas along and north of US Highway 2. Based on webcam observations, this appears to be ongoing in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains where 700mb frontogenesis is maximized.
Depending on the evolution of the frontogenesis through the afternoon, snowfall amounts will tend to fall towards the higher total potential of 6-8 inches when all is said and done. More broadly, synoptically driven snowfall will bring a swath of at least 2 inches along and north of US Highway 2 with the embedded 6-8 inches where banding is. Where the 6-8 inches falls has a lower predictability than the broad 2 inches thanks to the inherent low predictability of frontogenetic forcing propagation. Regardless, expect moderate to major impacts to travel primarily due to heavy snowfall rates creating whiteout conditions, with at least some blowing snow ongoing.

As the surface low approaches around Grand Forks, winds will significantly increase west of the low. Direction will depend on location relative to the surface low, with those to the northwest of the low experiencing strong northwesterly winds with gusts up to 60 mph. The pressure gradient along the backside of this low approaches 115 microbars/kilometer, which is very strong. Sustained winds will be at least 40 mph on the backside of this, with the potential for 60 mph gusts. The strongest winds, however, will be closer to the strongest cold air advection, convection, and behind the surface pressure trough. Here, an 80-90 knot jet aloft exists which may mix down gusts of 60-70 mph. Surface based instability also is expected to exist in the southern portions of our area, so showers and thunderstorms may develop along this surface pressure trough.
This will be enough to bring the threat of dangerous wind gusts up to 80 mph. Due to the necessity of convection to contribute to this, where this occurs will be localized and also carry a lower predictability horizon, similar to how severe weather is for us. Winds will peak generally after 6PM before rapidly tapering off after 6 AM.

The aforementioned winds and accumulated snowfall will contribute to blowing snow issues, including blizzard conditions where falling snow is ongoing. As the surface low passes, there will remain weaker synoptic forcing bringing continued light snow through the evening and overnight hours. Within areas of light snow and with accumulated snow of 2 inches or greater, widespread whiteout conditions are expected to develop as sustained winds between 40-50 mph will easily be enough to push blowing snow probabilities to 100%. Even in the absence of 2 inches of blowable snow, any falling snow will be enough to create periods of whiteout conditions, particularly in open country. The heaviest impacts will be felt between 6 PM and 12 AM, with a quick tapering off as winds diminish after midnight.
Blowing snow will continue after this period but we should start to see impacts improve as the winds diminish.

Conditions for everyone will improve by 7AM for most, with accumulating snow lingering in the Lake of the Woods/Beltrami area through mid to late morning. By the afternoon, everyone should be well past this system with impacts becoming minimal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Snow and mixed precipitation are moving into eastern North Dakota this afternoon, with KDVL reporting light snow and IFR conditions. As the system moves east, KGFK and KFAR will experience IFR ceilings, with light to moderate snow at KGFK.
Winds shift later this evening out of the northwest, then sharply increase, with sustained winds upwards of 30 to 35 knots and gusts approaching 50 knots through the late evening and overnight hours. This, combined with light falling snow and previous snow accumulations, will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow, along with sharply reduced visibility as low as 1/4 mile. Visibility improvements are expected after 12Z as winds diminish slightly.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ007-008-016-027- 054.
High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ029-030-039-053.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-014-015- 026.
High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ024-028-038-049- 052.
MN...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001-004-007.
High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ002-003-027-029>032-040.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ005-008- 013>015.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ006-009-016- 017.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ022>024- 028.