Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ely, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High pressure was located across the western Great Lakes early this afternoon and it extended westward into the Central and Northern Plains. A narrow band of showers stretched from central North Dakota into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin in association with a weak shortwave aloft. Much of this activity was not reaching the ground and drying up as it moved to the east. A lake breeze was also observed on radar along the South Shore and head of the lake stretching from near Port Wing to near Moose Lake. Conditions are expected to remain mainly dry across the Northland today into tonight, outside of a few light showers in western areas as the shortwave aloft moves through.

Upper level ridging will build in for the weekend with return flow in the low levels on the back side of the departing high pressure. This will bring increasing temperatures and moisture northward into the Upper Midwest. Highs Saturday will reach into the 70s to lower 80s for both Saturday and Sunday with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s Saturday and 60s and 70s Sunday. Low pressure across the northern High Plains will move northward Saturday into Sunday, blocked by the strong high pressure to the east. As another area of low pressure develops along the cold front across the central High Plains, a warm front will lift through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region. As this feature lifts northward, it will be accompanied by rich low level moisture and increasing lapse rates. This will bring a chance of strong to severe storms, but forecast soundings show capping in place, so storms may end up elevated. These storms may be efficient rain producers as well with tall skinny CAPE profiles and PWATS in the 1.5-1.75" range.

Monday continues to look interesting with very hot and humid conditions along with the potential for severe storms. Low pressure will move northward across the Central and Northern Plains through the day Monday along the west side of the upper ridge. Even more warm and more moist air will move northward into the region. Highs will reach into the 80s and 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s. This package has lowered temperatures a few degrees for Monday to account for the strong warm bias noted in some of the models. Even with this change, heat indicies will reach into the 90s and potentially lower 100s in southern and western areas and heat headlines will likely be needed. This hot and moist airmass will lead to CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg along with shear around 35 knots and favorable lapse rates. Forecast soundings continue to show a stout cap in place with very warm temperatures over 20C up to around 750mb.
Should this cap hold, we might not see any storms. However, if updrafts can break through it, conditions will be favorable for all modes of severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Heavy rainfall will continue to be a possibility during this time with PWATs above the 90th percentile for late June. With all this said, there aren't any strong indications of a lifting mechanism to get things going, so this is a very conditional threat and may rely on more mesoscale processes for initiation which cannot yet be resolved.

The remainder of next week will remain very warm with highs in the 80s and low 90s. Additional chances for showers and storms will be seen potentially each day. The mid-week period may not be as humid with models showing some drier air arriving behind a front Tuesday, but it remains to be seen how much of an effect this will have on providing any meaningful relief from the heat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will remain light and variable today and tonight before turning southeasterly Saturday morning and increasing to around 6 to 12 knots. There are some hints at some MVFR ceilings developing at Brainerd tonight, but this is likely tied to any shower activity. Dry low levels will likely prevent any shower activity and subsequent low ceilings.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High pressure over Lake Superior will keep winds light from the east today at 5 to 15 knots. Easterly winds will persist for both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will see winds gusting to 18 to 22 knots in the western arm then increasing to 20 to 25 knots on Sunday. A few gusts to near 30 knots will be possible as well along the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories may be needed this weekend, especially on Sunday. A warm front will lift across western Lake Superior Saturday night into Sunday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe on Sunday with large hail, wind gusts to 50 knots, heavy downpours, and cloud-to-water lightning. The best chances for any strong or severe storms Sunday will be in the western arm.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Increasing heat and humidity will be seen through the weekend and into next week. Highs Monday through much of next week will be in the 80s and 90s with high humidity. This will keep afternoon RH values generally above 40-50% through Monday. Winds turn breezy on Sunday from the southeast with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. Multiple chances for rain are expected starting Saturday night. A cold front is forecast to move through Monday night into Tuesday and may help scour out low level moisture for Tuesday-Wednesday with afternoon RH values potentially falling into the 30-40% range. Confidence on this is currently low with a lot riding on the evolution of showers and storms Sunday and Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.