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FXUS66 KOTX 032129 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 229 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS

Ridging will build through the rest of the week with warming temperatures and drying conditions. A pattern change is expected early next week that will bring the return of cooler temperatures and wetter conditions.

DISCUSSION

Tonight through Wednesday: Upper level ridging has begun to move into the region for the start of a period of warm and dry conditions across the Inland Northwest. For tonight and tomorrow, moist, northwest flow into the region will continue to bring chances for light showers to the Cascade crest and the Idaho Panhandle mountains, where there is a 70-80% chance to see over 0.02 inches of rainfall. Clouds will stick around tonight under the moist flow, which will keep temperatures moderate. Clouds will clear out for Wednesday night as ridging progresses eastward, with colder low temperatures. /vmt

Thursday through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will amplify along the coast through the second half of this week keeping a drying and warming trend in place through Sunday. Dry, northwesterly upper-level flow accompanying the ridge will shoo any lingering moisture out of the region, leaving us with clear skies and sunshine.

High temperatures will warm by a couple degrees each day and will reach the mid to upper 70s for most of the region by Sunday.
Sunday is expected to be the warmest day before things start cooling down heading into next week. With a dry atmosphere, calm winds, and minimal cloud cover, temperatures at the surface will be able to cool down quite efficiently after sunset and will sink into the upper 30s and low 40s Thursday night through Saturday night. You may want to wear an extra layer (or two) if you have to head anywhere early in the morning before the sun has a chance to warm things up.

The ridge will move onshore Friday into Saturday and will migrate east of us by Sunday. Nearly all ensemble members have some sort of trough moving in early next week after the ridge's departure indicating a likely return of cool, wet, and breezy weather.
However, there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding the positioning, timing, and strength of the trough.

Guidance continues to suggest the trough could tap into a moderate to strong atmospheric river bringing an abundance of moisture into the region. The integrated water vapor transport plumes show a clear spike Monday and Tuesday and the CPC is already highlighting a slight risk of heavy precipitation along the coast. We'll continue to monitor model trends over the next few days. /Fewkes

AVIATION
18Z TAFS: Stratus will out from northwest to southeast over the next couple hours for sunny skies and VFR conditions through the day. Winds will increase near the Cascade gaps this evening with northwest gusts up to 30 kts. Residual moisture will bring a 50-60% chance for ceilings to drop below 3000 feet Wednesday morning for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 46 68 43 69 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 66 42 66 40 69 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 44 63 42 68 39 70 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 51 71 49 72 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 39 70 36 70 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 64 40 64 38 67 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 49 62 44 65 43 70 / 30 30 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 45 74 43 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 55 73 51 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 49 74 48 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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