DISCUSSION

Today: Northwest flow aloft and lower heights continue to bring more comfortable temperatures to the area. Winds across the area are light, which should help to reduce some smoke production.
Nonetheless, the HRRR smoke shows a swath of smoke from the Swawilla fire migrating towards the Colville area this evening and overnight. The fires near Juliaetta are sending smoke to the southwest and the Lewiston has cleared out a bit.

Saturday and Sunday: A closed low off California moving inland will help to maintain lower heights across the area, while an approaching shortwave will move across the area, bringing tighter pressure gradients and increased winds across central Washington on Saturday and central and eastern Washington Sunday. There is a 20-40% chance of meeting red flag conditions near Wenatchee and the L-C valley Saturday and Sunday. There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms in the north Cascades/northern mountains Saturday as model soundings show weak conditional instability building with the shortwave passage.

Monday and Tuesday: Another stronger shortwave trough from the Gulf of Alaska will move onshore late Monday into Tuesday, bringing tighter pressure gradients and stronger associated winds, elevating fire concerns despite higher humidities. Associated with this is a chance for wetting rain approaching 50% northeast of Spokane and in the Cascades/Idaho Panhandle Monday through Tuesday night, as well as a 10-20% chance of lightning. Unfortunately, central Washington is unlikely to see a wetting rain during this time, and as wind increases, fire concerns will be elevated with the very dry fuels. Nonetheless, increased cloud cover and humidity will aid fire-fighting efforts. Temperatures will remain near-average during this period.

Wednesday through Friday: Models are in good agreement that a ridge will start to build back in later next week, which will bring increasing heat to area, with high temperatures approaching the mid-90s to low-100s. Winds will abate to below critical levels during this period, but associated dry air and increased heat will still likely allow for fire risk levels to remain at or near levels seen earlier in the week. /Cooke

AVIATION
00Z TAFS: Dry northwest flow aloft will keep conditions VFR through the period with light and diurnally/terrain driven winds.
Smoke from local and regional wildfires wildfires may result in intermittent visibility reductions to 6SM. The exception will be for KLWS where nearby fires (River and Gwen) to the east will result in reductions to 4SM or less, bouncing between MVFR and IFR conditions. Northwest winds in the afternoon may slightly improve conditions but confidence is low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence on how smoke will impact visibility across the Inland Northwest.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 53 87 56 86 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d'Alene 51 85 54 84 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pullman 47 82 50 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 59 92 61 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 44 84 45 84 47 82 / 0 10 10 0 0 30 Sandpoint 47 82 50 82 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Kellogg 55 80 57 80 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 53 89 55 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 61 88 61 88 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Omak 58 91 58 91 60 86 / 0 10 10 0 0 30

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.