Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellmead, TX

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cutoff low continues to slowly emerge out of northern Mexico.
In response to the increased lift overspreading much of the state, widespread virga continues to develop across portions of the area. Given this is high-based (around 10-12 kft) with a dry sub-cloud layer, the vast majority of any precipitation is evaporating prior to reaching the surface. However, intermittent sprinkles/very light rain will continue to be possible through the afternoon. A cold front will move through North Texas this afternoon/early evening and Central Texas this evening/overnight.
We should see an increase in precipitation coverage and intensity as the front moves through the area, with a transition from virga to rain showers expected as top-down saturation is achieved.
With very little moisture to work with, the showers won't produce much rainfall - only amounting to a few hundredths of an inch at most for some areas. Precipitation will end from west to east overnight as the trough departs to our east. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s and Wednesday afternoon highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Quiet weather will continue through Thursday and most of Friday with southerly winds resuming and temperatures returning to the 70s and 80s. There will be a low chance for showers Friday morning as a weak cold front slides towards the Red River. However, better rain chances are slated to arrive late Friday through Saturday night as another cut-off low develops in the Southwest CONUS and moves east across the region over the upcoming weekend.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday night and will likely continue throughout the day Saturday (be prepared for a rainy Valentine's Day!). Moisture return ahead of this system will be sufficient enough to bring beneficial rain to much of the region. Current rainfall totals are looking to be between 1" and 2.5" on average. While embedded thunderstorms are expected at times, the potential for severe weather is a bit more uncertain. Marginal instability could develop Saturday afternoon, particularly across Central Texas. Given there will be plenty of shear in place, we could see an isolated threat for severe storms in this area if this occurs, and this will be worth monitoring over the next few days.

Rain chances are expected to end from west to east Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region and the upper level trough gradually departs to our east. We'll have the potential for a final round of thunderstorms on the backside of the system near the Red River through Sunday morning, but instability looks to be rather negligible. Therefore, severe weather is not expected.
We're not anticipating a significant cool-down behind this system, with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday afternoon and lows in the 40s Sunday night. Another warming trend will likely transpire early next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Overcast and areas of virga continue to persist across North and Central Texas this evening. Isolated showers are possible this evening, though coverage is too low to introduce precip into TAFs. Have kept most likely timeframe with isolated showers in vicinity of TAF sites as a VCSH FM group. No thunderstorms are expected. The surface cold front will have pushed south of Metroplex TAF sites by the start of this TAF period, and will likely move through KACT sometime between 02Z and 04Z. North winds at 5-10 kts are expected behind the cold front. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail the duration of this forecast period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 48 67 48 / 20 40 0 0 Waco 74 52 71 50 / 10 30 0 0 Paris 74 47 67 45 / 20 40 0 0 Denton 76 42 66 42 / 30 40 0 0 McKinney 75 46 67 45 / 20 40 0 0 Dallas 77 50 68 49 / 20 40 0 0 Terrell 76 48 69 46 / 20 40 0 0 Corsicana 77 53 71 50 / 10 30 0 0 Temple 74 51 73 48 / 10 30 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 44 68 43 / 30 50 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.