Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parker Strip, AZ

DISCUSSION
Through next Friday

Radar and satellite imagery through the night showed a decently organized circulation over southeast California/southwest Arizona as rain and lightning developed. This is likely associated with a piece of energy that was cut off and left behind from the shortwave the past few days. Hi-res models have been slow to pick up this feature and what it will do the next 36 hours. Surface analysis showed around 1.00 PWATs with this feature that were slowly creeping north. HRRR has a decent handle on this and shows PWATs increase to over 0.75 inches by Sunday morning through the Colorado River Valley and western Arizona. Modest moisture combined with vorticity advection rotating around the center of the low should be enough to light rain to develop at times late Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Unsure how much will reach the ground, and probabilities for impactful rainfall amounts is low- so likely will not see rainfall impacts with this round of precipitation. If better rainfall were to develop, it would be in the terrain of Mohave and Clark counties as easterly upslope flow could enhance light rain. 90th percentile "worst case scenario" 24hr rainfall amounts show about 0.50 inches of rain in these areas, so high impact weather is not expected. Given the models seem behind on picking up on this piece of energy and what it will do, mesoanalysis late morning and early afternoon will paint a better picture of what may occur and adjustments to precipitation chances are possible. Otherwise, winds should remain light as temperatures drop to slightly below normal.

After this first system lifts out and is absorbed into the mean flow, another more potent trough is expected to impact the region Tuesday through much of the work week. On Tuesday as the deepening trough approaches, breezy south to southwest winds develop. Probabilities for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH have dropped and generally remain below 50%, so wind impacts are becoming less of a concern. With strong forcing associated with the cutoff low and moisture in place over the region, precipitation chances are possible starting Tuesday and continuing ta times through the week. Current forecast has chances peaking Wednesday into Thursday with all areas seeing at least a 30% chance for precipitation. Highest chances and precipitation amounts will be in Inyo County through the Southern Great Basin where the strongest forcing is currently expected to set up.
Accumulating snow is also likely, mainly above 9000ft. All that said- there continues to be significant uncertainty in the track and strength of the system as it moves inland, as well as discrepancies in how much moisture will be available. Increasing confidence that there will be precipitation next week, especially Wednesday and Thursday, but continued uncertainty in exact details and impacts as model disagreement persists. With increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances, temperatures will remain below normal next week.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Light northeasterly winds under 10KT will continue through sunset this evening, when winds veer to the southwest and then become variable overnight. Clouds gradually increase in coverage through the forecast period, with ceilings becoming SCT-BKN between 7-10kft this evening and tonight as showers drift northward into the area.
Confidence in impacts at the terminal aside from light rain or sprinkles remains low. Until then, VFR conditions will continue.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Winds will generally remain around 5-10KT the next 24 hours, maintaining a northerly to northeasterly direction for most terminals before settling into typical directional patterns with some variability this evening.
Exceptions include KDAG, where winds remain easterly through the period, with gusts to around 20-25KT expected late morning through late afternoon, and KIFP where northerly winds will remain elevated around 10-15KT this morning and afternoon. Mid-level and high clouds will increase in coverage from south to north today, with ceilings dropping to around 6-10kft this evening and tonight as isolated to scattered showers overspread southeastern California, southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.