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FXUS65 KVEF 050825 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1225 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions persist through Thursday, with strong winds expected in the eastern Sierra on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and breezy north winds spread into the region on Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM
Today and Wednesday.

Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak, upper-level circulation spinning over SoCal this morning. This feature will remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours, producing few to scattered high clouds across our southern locations today.
Otherwise, expecting mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal for early December. Here in Las Vegas, the NBM has us flirting with the 70 degree mark, having a ~20% chance of reaching it. Winds remain light with the exception of the Laughlin and the Mohave Valley, where gusts of 20- 30 mph are expected.

On Wednesday, models depict a shortwave trough glancing our northwestern zones. PoPs continue to decrease with this system, now only ~10% on our portion of the Sierra crest. The more notable effect of this trough will be the winds. Latest NBM and HRRR probabilities for 58+ mph gusts in the Sierra and lee slopes range from 40-70%, generally increasing with elevation. Thus, opted to issued a Wind Advisory for the eastern Sierra slopes from 10AM - 7PM Wednesday. The likelihood of downslope winds reaching the US-395 corridor is more uncertain, with probabilities around 10-20%.
Outside of the Sierra, winds remain fairly benign on Wednesday, with just breezy conditions on the high terrain. Temperatures remain several degrees above climatological norms.

LONG TERM
Thursday through the Weekend.

Our next shortwave passage will look to push through the area late week bringing another cold front passage and a shift to north winds.
Initially a slower, more robust low progression, 12Z clusters show very little variance from the GE mean, which now shows a quicker west to east movement, that takes the axis trough axis east of the CWA by late Friday. As such, other than a cool off, winds do not look to warrant the need for a Wind Advisory with this system (<20% chance for 40 mph gusts CWA-wide) other than an outside shot at a Lake Wind Advisory for the CRV.

Cooler temperatures will persist through Saturday, but a warm up will occur shortly thereafter as further ridging is well agreed upon in the respective ensembles. While variance increases beyond Day 6, the primary uncertainty is in the amplitude of the ridge early next week. So warmup looks pretty likely, but how much is the main question.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...No operationally significant winds, clouds, or weather expected through Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Expect one more day of north winds gusting 20 to 30 knots in the Colorado River Valley today, with quiet weather elsewhere. Tonight and Wednesday, west to southwest winds will increase over the Sierra crest, with gusts up to 60 knots producing severe turbulence on the east side of the range Wednesday. These winds will be accompanied by a band of clouds as low as 10K feet MSL, which could result in obscuration of the highest peaks of the White Mountains. The clouds will decrease and the winds will slowly subside and move farther south Wednesday night and Thursday, with westerly gusts up to 30 knots in the Barstow area Thursday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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