Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Below-average temperatures and frost/freeze conditions expected for some Friday and through the weekend.

2) Generally wet pattern expected next week with daily rain chances.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The main story into the weekend will be cooler temperatures and frost/freeze conditions for portions of the area. Cold advection and northwest flow will drop temperatures into the 30s areawide tonight. Coldest spots will be along the I-80 corridor/north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges, where chances for 37F or below range from 70-100%. Eastern Tucker county will likely see freezing conditions (60% chance). In addition, timing the cloud cover tonight, the exiting high will be a tad slower and will impede the approaching cloud cover. So decided to include the rest of the PA counties in the Frost Advisory as well as Monongalia and Marion Counties in the Advisory.

Increasing cloud cover Friday may make frost development more difficult Friday night/early Saturday, but continued cold advection will drop temperatures along the I-80 corridor into the lower 30s. Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed once again for that region.

Clearing skies Saturday night and continued cold advection will drop areawide temperatures into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s north of I-80 (25-30% chance). Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Dry weather is expected Sunday with brief high pressure, but a series of shortwave troughs and crossing surface lows will keep daily rain chances in the forecast for most of next week.
The greatest chance for thunderstorms appears to be in the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe as a cold front and secondary low pressure cross the area. Machine learning does broadly highlight the region for severe potential on Wednesday. The Monday and Tuesday period do mention 5% risk as well for severe.
Monday only consists of Ohio and Tuesday encompasses the entire area.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Medium confidence forecast on CIGS departing after 18Z. They could stay in the MVFR range til 20Z before lifting to VFR. The other main forecast challenge would be when and if fog develops overnight? As of now, the highest confidence would be FKL and maybe DUJ. However, that is only a 25% chance, so opted to leave it out of the forecast at this time.

VFR for most of the forecast with high based stratocu. A weak area of low pressure moves through Friday generating showers from ZZV from around 12Z to PIT to around 14Z and LBE around 15Z. Once they arrive expect a 4-6 hour window with off and on showers. As of now, CIGS and VIS should stay in the MVFR category.

Wind will be from the northwest around 10 knots then subside to less than five knots overnight into Friday morning.

Outlook...
No widespread IFR weather is expected. MVFR conditions are possible with showers Friday and Saturday afternoon.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ021-509>513.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ514.