Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wolcott, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers continue this evening and overnight.

2) GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKES.

3) A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION, AS WELL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.

4) ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN, SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND A RETURN WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEW YORK.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers continue this evening and overnight.

This evening a cold front is just to our west, and will swing across our region through the evening and early overnight hours. Showers upon the cold front this evening, but with waning instability any thunder will be low enough to exclude thunderstorms from the forecast with this update. Overall precipitation tonight will range from a third of an inch across the Southern Tier, to perhaps a half an inch east of Lake Ontario. As cold air steepens through the night with the nearing of the mid level shortwave and its associated cold pool, rain showers will taper off as a little snow, with any minor accumulations over the hills east of both lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKES.

A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS MUCH CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN THE CLASSIC HIGH WIND SETUP FOR WESTERN NY. MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS IMPRESSIVE WITH 60-70 KNOTS OF WIND EXTENDING DOWN TO BELOW 5K FEET IN THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES POOR AND LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A CONVECTIVE FINELINE ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS, EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM.

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KNOTS AVAILABLE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, GUSTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THE TIME. OUR CURRENT PLAN IS TO HANDLE ANY SHORT DURATION GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THE COLD FRONT WITH SPS AND/OR SVR SHOULD THE NEED ARISE.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW, RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG BUT COMPACT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IT WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND LOSE A BIT OF STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE REACHING FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MONRING.
MID-RANGE MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES INDICATE INCREASING SPREAD IN REGARDS TO TRACK AND DEGREE OF WEAKENING OF THE SFC LOW IN THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE THE ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY/FORCING THAT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA EVEN WITH THIS VARIANCE IN MIND, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING BOTH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WINDS:

THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A VERY STRONG 70KT+ LLJ OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL THEN BE AIMED IN THE DIRECTION OF WNY. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO THIS JET WEAKENING A SOLID 10-15KTS ON ARRIVAL, AS WELL AS BEING WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S WAA REGIME. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND LIMIT THEM SPATIALLY TO THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. STILL, ADVISORY- LEVEL SSE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50MPH SEEM LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN THIS AREA. BOTH THE REFS & HRRR ADVERTISE 80-100% PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS >45MPH ALONG THE RIDGE, THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES AND SEE HOW THE HI-RES MODELS TREND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WNY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE RESIDUAL JET REMAINS OVERHEAD. NOW WITHIN THE CAA REGIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MIXING AND FUNNELING DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY LEAD TO A WINDOW OF 40-50MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND IMMEDIATELY DUE EAST OF THE LAKE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIMEFRAME AND ALSO MOVING BEYOND THE SCOPE OF MANY HI-RES MODELS, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE LOW WILL TRACK IN EVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.

THE LLJ WILL FURTHER WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD LEAVE US WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A MODEST BREEZE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION:

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, THE INCOMING LLJ ON THE NOSE OF THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS ALL OR MOSTLY WET SNOW BEFORE WAA CAUSES THE DOMINANT PTYPE TO BECOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE IT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED OVERALL. THEREFORE WHILE THE PTYPE SHOULD SWITCH BACK OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT, ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WNY.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MORE IMPACTFUL OR EVEN HEADLINE-WORTHY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PROVIDING UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS AND COLDER SFC TEMPS, MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS PRESENT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.

KEY MESSAGE 4...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN, SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND A RETURN WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEW YORK.

AS THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, A STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL DIG A DEEPER, LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LARGER SCALE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BRIEFLY SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S WAKE. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE PLACES PROBABILITIES OF 850MB WINDS >50 KT AT 60-80% WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MI ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC THAT MAY NEED FUTURE MONITORING FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH WILL HAVE RAMIFICATION TO PTYPE AND STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS. THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR 850MB TEMPS IS QUITE WIDE BETWEEN 2 TO -12 DEGC EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT MOST MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUALLY DROPPING AROUND -15 TO -20 DEGC, BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 2ND PERCENTILE FOR MID-MARCH.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
For the 00Z TAFS a cold front is nearing the western TAF sites, with showers and lowering flight conditions to IFR, especially northeast of Lake Erie where a marine layer of low stratus has once again reached the BUF airfield.

Thunder chances look low with stabilizing lower atmosphere, and will just include rain showers for the precipitation type overnight.
Winds will remain gusty through the first 6 to 12 hours of this TAF cycle with the cold front passage, though with the LLJ not as strong, and lifting...we should not have many gusts over 35 knots.

As the cold air steepens rain showers may end as a little snow, with impacts generally reserved for the higher terrain east of both lakes...possibly including the KJHW terminal with a brief period of reduced visibilities in snow showers.

These snow showers will slowly taper off through the day tomorrow on a west-northwest flow over the region.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AND THEN CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. VERY WINDY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER. WINDY.

SUNDAY.. MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.

MONDAY.. MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.

MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS EVENING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A PERIOD OF GALES LIKELY ON LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY.

PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.

HYDROLOGY
Ongoing well above average temperatures will continue to support rapid snowmelt across the North Country through this evening. Significant snowpack and SWE remains across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. Rain will bring another 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain through tonight over much of the region, including the North Country.

Rivers will continue to rise east of Lake Ontario from ongoing snowmelt and rainfall. The Black River will likely flood starting late tonight or early Thursday, with flooding continuing through the weekend on this slow responding river.
The latest forecast shows the Black River at Watertown reaching the high end of Minor Flood Stage, but moderate stage is possible by the weekend, which would result in more significant impacts.

Flooding is also possible on many other rivers that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks tonight through the end of the week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040- 041.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042-062.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043>045-063>065.