Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for White Pine, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Early this morning satellite water vapor imagery and model 500mb height analysis showed broad troughing over Canada into the northern U.S. with shortwave ridging up the Pacific coast. This was setting up a relatively zonal flow across the northern tier of the U.S. with multiple weak shortwaves in the flow. Clouds were spreading north into the far southern U.P. with southerly flow over the region and a sharp frontal boundary was set up north of Lake Superior and along the U.S. Canadian border. Temperatures were in the low 20s where the boundary layer has been able to separate, particularly over the interior. Elsewhere temperatures were in the upper 20s to low 30s, and even mid 30s in the downslope areas near Lake Superior.

Zonal upper level flow will remain over the region through Wednesday along with a cold front continuing to stretch from west to east along the U.S./Canadian border, which will waffle south and north through Wednesday night. Meanwhile a trough will dig down the west coast and into the southwest U.S. by Thursday night. This will bring strengthening southerly flow over the area, helping to lift the cold front well north of the region on Friday as the trough shifts east and associated low pressure ejects from the Colorado Rockies. The low will track towards the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning with a trailing cold front and northwest winds expected to push through during the day Saturday. The flow will quickly switch southerly again on Sunday as low pressure tracks through Ontario.

For today into tonight low level moisture will increase on southerly flow with low clouds overspreading much of the U.P this morning.
Spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle may develop with models showing a saturated layer of 3-4 kft in the low levels and weak isentropic lift. Flurries or patchy light snow is also possible as some guidance brings temps in the saturated layer down to -8C or -9C, giving a 30-40% chance for ice nucleation. Regardless, any precipitation is expected to be very light with only trace amounts.
Untreated surfaces could develop a light glaze should drizzle persist in any one area for a few hours. NBM prob grids seem to show the precip potential well though did cap PoPs at 24% to keep the mention of measurable precipitation at slight chance. NBM brings temperatures up into the upper 30s to lower 40s today, cloud cover should help keep temperatures from overachieving guidance. The chance for drizzle dwindles this evening as the moist layer becomes shallower. There is some concern for fog over the interior tonight but did not include in the forecast at this time.

Wednesday is expected to warm around 15 degrees above average with highs in the 40s to lower 50s, coolest in the east with southerly winds off the cold waters of Lake Michigan. On Wednesday night into Thursday a weak low pressure will track through northern IL/IN before dissipating over the eastern Great Lakes. While most of the precipitation associated with this low should remain south of the area a few showers cloud move through Menominee county and southern Delta county on Thursday. This low will help to briefly pull the cold front south into the U.P. Wednesday night. Cooler easterly flow is expected on Thursday as lee troughing deepens along the central Rockies and pushes east into the plains. This will set up a bit of a temperature gradient across the area, with areas in the east and close to the Great Lakes shorelines remaining cooler, 30s, while interior locations reach into the mid 40s.

Friday through Saturday the Colorado low will track from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Models still diverge on the track of the low which will have implications for precipitation amounts. However, models are in general agreement that p-types will mainly be rain with a thin ribbon on snow on the northwest side of the precip shield. GFS/ECWMF show elevated CAPE of up to 400 and 800 J/kg respectively and NBM/WPC guidance has introduced thunder over the southern and eastern parts of the U.P for Friday night. With plenty of snow cover over the northern half of the U.P. any heavier convective rains could result in ponding of water on roadways. There is still too much uncertainty in the track to hone in on exactly where and how much snow could fall but significant snowfall is not expected at this time. NBM has a 40% chance for measurable snow (over 24 hrs) over the western and north central U.P. on Saturday but only ~10% chance of exceeding one inch of snowfall. A brief period over warm temperatures are possible early Saturday before a cold front moves though the area dropping temperatures through the day. NBM 90pct has up to 60F along the MI/WI state line with a mean of around 50F Saturday morning.

Continued above average temperatures are expected Sunday into early next week with highs in the 40s to near 50 and lows in the 20s.
There is a slight chance for showers but widespread precipitation isn't likely during this period. A stronger storm system could impact the region during the later half of the week but quite a bit of uncertainty remains at this point. It could mark the start of a cooler pattern, the CPC outlook days 8-14 is indicating higher chances for below normal temperatures and equal chances for above/below normal precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Lingering low clouds in the wake of a weak disturbance is leading to MVFR to high-end IFR conditions at all sites this early afternoon, though satellite observations are showing more clearing than expected over the western UP, northwestern WI, and western Lake Superior, so some low-level SCT cloud cover prevails at IWD through the afternoon hours. Expect cloud cover to increase tonight and for all sites to become MVFR to IFR overnight. For the morning hours of Wednesday, the combination of cooling to the dew point and moist air over the snow pack is leading to increasing potential for FG development to varying degrees at all sites. IWD currently has around a 20% chance of FG, though the uncertainty is a little too high to include in the TAF for this issuance, but could be handled with TEMPOs in future issuances. CMX/SAW are 40-50+% to see at least MVFR FG, with chances of IFR at 20-40% and LIFR at around 20%. While the models are currently forecasting improvements around 16-17Z, the pattern of warm, moist air over snowpack does tend to lead to lower vis than forecast, though in this case, winds increasing to 5-10 kt with gusts of 10-15kt early Wednesday PM would tend towards decreasing FG coverage and intensity.

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Light winds below 20kt are expected through Wednesday with weak troughing over Lake Superior. Winds will be southwesterly today but shift northerly tonight as a weak frontal boundary drops south over the lake, before shifting southerly again on Wednesday. As low pressure deepens along the eastern slopes of the central Rockies easterly flow will develop and strengthen to 25kt Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure tracking through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday will bring increasing southerly winds to 30kt, shifting northerly on Saturday with a few gales to 35 kt possible. Widespread southwesterly gales are possible (30-40% chance) on Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient strengthens in response to a low pressure tracking through Ontario.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.